Key Drivers Influencing Gulf Market Forecasts for 2026 thumbnail

Key Drivers Influencing Gulf Market Forecasts for 2026

Published Aug 21, 26
5 min read


Oct 2019 Walid Majdalani, Head of Investcorp Private Equity MENA service, details the appealing chances of buying GCC Facilities, driven by the area's development and federal government efforts.

Diversity is attain a balanced economy,, Diversity visions and methods exist. But there were and The, by developing an index without any qualitative/perceptions indicators. The overall Global EDI is made up of tracking. As commodity exporters diversify, lower their reliance on resource leas and potentially score a higher score on the EDI.

For non-diversified countries, when cost of the commodity falls, there is a significant decline in federal government income, public spending, present account balance and international reserves: more volatility. The (consisting of major commodity exporters, not restricted to simply oil) over the, throughout 25 indicators (consisting of three digital signs). North America, Western Europe and East Asia Pacific countries leading EDI ratings throughout the years.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+


Even though structural reforms and diversification efforts undertaken by the GCC affected MENA's local ratings positively, it still lags five other regional groups., with the top 10 nations having less than a 10-point difference in ratings (implying the strength of diversification)., along with 4 upper-middle income (China, Mexico, Turkey and Thailand) and one lower middle-income country (India, ranked 20th, driven by its services export boom).

Among the e. nations ranked 51 to 70, the performance of Moldova, Indonesia, Armenia and Honduras stick out (when comparing 2024 vs 2000). years, offered accelerated diversity plans of numerous oil-exporting countries. published a stable improvement due to a mix of lowered dependence on fuel exports, minimized exports concentration and a modification in the composition of exports.

How Economic Diversification Drives Middle East Growth in 2026

with oil exporters having the least expensive ratings (though private country-specific efficiency has actually differed with time). Tunisia, Morocco and Jordan have readings of 100+ as does the UAE while Algeria and Kuwait are on the other end of the spectrum. Across all areas, the average score is the for both 2000 and 2024, and the greatest in North America.

In 2024, the (China was amongst the leading ranked, while Mongolia's rating got worse compared to 2000)., however more to do with a "levelling up" at the bottom instead of an improvement amongst the leading nations. By comparing the (height of the blue box), least irregularity is seen in South Asia in 2000 and the most in the MENA area (with variation most likely driven by the dichotomy within the region in between the resource-heavy states (e.g.

Sub-Saharan African nations account for around one-third of the total, followed by Latin America and the Middle East (the latter two together representing over 40% of the overall). Consisting of, there has been an (from 90.3 in 2000-04 to 92.6 and 92.3 in the five years pre- and post-pandemic ).

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+


and ranked higher than others; UAE is up more than 45 locations in 2024 compared to 2000 while Qatar climbed up 24; both Saudi Arabia and Oman increased 17 ranks during the duration. The trapped or even worse off countries are some parts of Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa where structural transformation has actually stalled.

shows a considerable boost in average EDI ratings from 86.8 in 2000-04 to 92.6 in 2020-24, (up more than 10 points in the preliminary duration versus 2020-24). with UAE outshining in the trade sub-index (supported by current bilateral trade agreements & non-oil exports push). vs its pre-pandemic reading (partly given the surge in medium & modern production information).

Why the GCC Emerging as Global Investment Powerhouse?

Its diversification metrics have actually stagnated, revealing the least enhancement in between the initial (2000-04) and last (2020-24) recommendation periods., in spite of the headwinds of OPEC+ production cuts. A robust non-hydrocarbon expansion was supported by the GCC's robust domestic demand (supported by a strong task pipeline and execution) and strong services sector performance.

Kuwait and Saudi Arabia clocked in an increase in non-hydrocarbon profits, "mostly showing non-hydrocarbon tax base growths and earnings collection efficiency enhancements", according to the IMF. In the current geopolitical environment characterized by intensifying, it is in the very best interests of product reliant nations to diversify its export base, exports and trade partners.

Sub-Saharan African nations represent around one-third of the total, followed by Latin America and the Middle East (the latter two together representing over 40% of the overall). Including, there has been an (from 90.3 in 2000-04 to 92.6 and 92.3 in the five years pre- and post-pandemic ).

and ranked greater than others; UAE is up more than 45 locations in 2024 compared to 2000 while Qatar climbed up 24; both Saudi Arabia and Oman rose 17 ranks throughout the duration. The trapped or even worse off nations are some parts of Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa where structural change has stalled.

Is GCC Becoming Global Investment Powerhouse?

shows a considerable boost in average EDI ratings from 86.8 in 2000-04 to 92.6 in 2020-24, (up more than 10 points in the preliminary duration versus 2020-24). with UAE outshining in the trade sub-index (supported by current bilateral trade arrangements & non-oil exports push). vs its pre-pandemic reading (partially given the rise in medium & state-of-the-art production data).

Its diversity metrics have actually stagnated, revealing the least enhancement between the preliminary (2000-04) and final (2020-24) recommendation periods., in spite of the headwinds of OPEC+ production cuts. A robust non-hydrocarbon growth was supported by the GCC's robust domestic demand (supported by a strong task pipeline and execution) and strong services sector efficiency.

Capital Diversification Frameworks for a 2026 Global Market

Kuwait and Saudi Arabia clocked in a boost in non-hydrocarbon revenue, "mainly reflecting non-hydrocarbon tax base growths and revenue collection effectiveness improvements", according to the IMF. In the existing geopolitical environment identified by magnifying, it remains in the very best interests of commodity reliant countries to diversify its export base, exports and trade partners.

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